Define and give an example of each of the following: Illusory correlation.

Define and give an example of each of the following: Illusory correlation.

Perception of a relationship where none exists, or perception of a stronger relationship than actually exists

Part of the problem of illusory correlations comes from how we process distinctive events. A good example of illusory correlations is crime rates and ethnic groups. Being Aboriginal is distinctive in Canada; most people are not aboriginal. So is being a criminal -- most people are not criminals.

However if we were to ask someone how likely it is that a given Aboriginal is a criminal the estimate we would likely get would be substantially higher than the true percentage in society. When we see two things that are distinctive happening together (being an Aboriginal; being a criminal) people can assume the link between the two is much stronger than it really is.

Although part of the assumed correlation may be based on reality (it is true that Aboriginals are over-represented in the criminal justice system) this does not necessarily mean that the correlation between being Aboriginal and crime rates is high, or that all Aboriginals are criminals. Indeed, there are of course many reasons why Aboriginals are over-represented in the legal system (other correlates with criminal activity such as economic circumstances, bias, drug and alcohol dependency issues, etc.).

Our bias is to assume that two things that co-occur cause one another, and this leads us to another cognitive heuristic. We have what is called an illusion of control -- we believe that events that are outside our control can actually be influenced by us. This again comes from the covariance principle -- when two things happen at the same time one must have caused the other.